Business Insider (July 4, 2010): This discussion with ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan on All Things Considered is an excellent listen. He explains the Economic Cycle Research Institute's view that A) the slowdown ahead is already a done deal and can't be stopped by any government policy we enact and that B) we face the unfortunate prospect of more frequent recessions over the next ten years. Finally, C) he explains the threat of U.S. unemployment getting worse within the
Leading Indicators Fall Sharply To Lowest Level Since Last September
We saw the pullback in the stock market coming as the ECRI leading indicators peaked (see here, and here) and started to rollover. All recoveries decelerate and we have thought that this one had just about peaked - now the stock market is getting wind of that too. Maybe markets aren't worried about the next Lehman. Maybe they're just worried about the fact that the boom is coming to an end.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has a great track record of calling the beginnings and ends of recessions and expansions. And now, its leading indicators are signaling that, while growth is likely to slow, a new recession is not on the horizon. “The ‘double-dippers’ will still be denied,” Lakshman Achuthan, the group’s managing director, says on Yahoo! TechTicker. Achuthan says that all recoveries at some point “throttle back” — i.e., decelerate — however, and that this recovery
Tactical allocation calls for looking for indicators or objective measures that not only lead the economy but lead the stock market too. Except for some funky years in the 1990s, the business cycle - ups, peaks, downs and troughs in the economy - were identifiable. Calling the inflection points was always the hard part. And once you thought you could "predict" within in a few months when the economy was going to turn, you next
NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth continued to rise, reaching levels hit in the summer of 2008, while its yearly growth rate climbed toward recent record levels, a research group said on Friday, saying this reaffirmed its forecasts of smooth recovery into 2010.
